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为揭示混合功能用地演化对城市热岛（Urban Heat Island, UHI）空间格局的影响，本文以武汉城市圈为研究区，使用混合元胞自动机（Mixed-cell Cellular Automata, MCCA）模型，该模型融合了随机森林回归与轮盘选择机制，有效实现了元胞内部多种功能用地组成成分的连续动态变化模拟。基于此，预测了3种发展情景下的热岛空间格局。结果表明：低碳发展情景能有效缓解热岛效应；自然发展情景下热岛强度持续增强；高速发展情景则显著增加了强热岛与极强热岛区的比例。各情景下城市热岛比例指数（URI）总体呈上升趋势。研究可为城市群热环境协同治理与可持续规划提供科学依据。
Abstract：To reveal the impact of mixed-functional land use evolution on the spatial patterns of the urban heat island(UHI), this study investigated the Wuhan urban agglomeration. A Mixed-cell Cellular Automata(MCCA) model, integrating Random Forest regression with a roulette wheel selection mechanism, was used to effectively simulate the continuous dynamic changes of multiple functional land use components within cells. Based on this model, the spatial patterns of the heat island were predicted under three development scenarios. The results indicated that the low-carbon development scenario effectively mitigated the heat island effect. The heat island intensity continuously strengthened under the natural development scenario, whereas the high-speed development scenario significantly increased the proportion of strong and extremely strong heat island zones. The Urban Heat Island Ratio Index(URI) showed a general upward trend across all scenarios. This study provides a scientific basis for the coordinated governance of the urban thermal environment and for sustainable planning in urban agglomerations.
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基本信息:
中图分类号:X16;TU984
引用信息:
[1]关庆锋,李雅君,王耀东,等.混合功能用地驱动的城市热岛格局模拟与预测[J].城市勘测,2025,No.214(06):1-7.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金（42171466）;国家自然科学基金（42271437）